My prediction: There is at least a 90% chance that the US stock market will crash sometime between Thanksgiving 2021 and Valentine’s Day 2022. This downturn will be more severe than usual and will likely last for two years or more. A black swan event will probably precipitate this calamitous outcome.
Now, how did I reach this extraordinary conclusion? I employed a four-pronged analysis as follows:
- The cyclical nature of the market
- The link between the fate of the nation and the luck of its chief executive, the president
- The fortunes of the high-ranking government officials responsible for managing the finances of the nation
- The fortunes of corporate America as revealed by the luck of a group of CEOs of key corporations representing various important industries
1. The cyclical nature of the market
There has always been a horde of pundits predicting stock market crashes. Historically, the market has crashed every nine to fourteen years or so. If one keeps on predicting the burst of the stock market bubble, it will eventually happen, as it has done so many times in the past. However, pinpointing the next market downturn accurately is tricky business. With the help of I Ching, however, such a task becomes eminently more manageable.
As the old adage, “Reversal is inevitable when extremes are reached,” indicates, the stock market always goes up and down in a cyclical manner, especially when stocks are either oversold or overbought. That the stock market crashed every eight to fourteen years or so has been evident in the recent past—1978, 1986, 2000, and 2009. At this time, on September 11, 2021, there has been, by and large, an unrelenting continuous bull market for twelve years. If the market behaves in the same way as it did in the past, a crash can be expected in the near future. At the moment, however, the whole world has been flush with an inordinate amount of liquidity as a result of quantitative easing initiated by the world’s major economies, marked by extremely low interest rates. To generate any kind of decent return, there is not much choice except for stock investments. Therefore, at this point, the bull run will continue unabated until stock prices inflate to an unsustainable level. The stock market will then reverse itself, but how soon will this happen? Is there a reliable way to foretell “exactly” when this calamitous event will take place?
2. The link between the fate of the nation and the luck of its chief executive, the president
Before I delve further into this subject, let me digress on certain curious yet undisputed historical events—deaths of presidents while in office.
Ever since George Washington was elected the first president of the United States in 1889 until the presidency of Donald Trump, every president elected in the year of Geng Zi (7/K, 庚子年) died in office. Are these just curious coincidences or evidence of the logic of destiny? Here is what the historical record shows:
Elected 1840: William Henry Harrison died from pneumonia on April 4, 1841, one month after inauguration.
Elected 1900: William McKinley died on September 14, 1901, from a gunshot wound sustained eight days earlier.
Elected 1960: John F Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963.
The common theme of the deaths of these presidents is their abrupt onset and traumatic nature.
As you may recall from our earlier discussion on the cycle of 60 pertaining to the way the celestial posts and terrestrial supports are combined in 60 different ways, Geng and Zi (庚子, 7/K) respectively represent major metal and major water. The year of Geng Zi comes along only every 60 years. The years of Zi are all years of the rat, which recur every 12 years. As you may have noticed, 1840, 1900, 1960, and 2020 are all 60 years apart. The deaths of presidents in office seem to have followed a familiar pattern. Are such repetitious events a matter of coincidence, or do they follow some unfathomable cosmic logic? President Joe Biden was elected in 2020, also a Geng Zi year. What is going to happen to him? After all, he is the oldest person ever elected to the US presidency.
The presidency of the United States is the most powerful position in the most powerful country in the world. All the stars must have lined up for someone to be elected to such a lofty office. On the contrary, however, death represents the ultimate bad luck because a person’s life force is snuffed out. Then, what is the mechanism by which good luck plunges into an abyss of bad luck within a few short years, that is, within the term of a presidency? The theorems of I Ching offer a perfectly logical answer.
The Geng Zi year (7/K 庚子年) is immediately followed by the Xin Chou year (8/L 辛丑年), which is dominated by the metal element, which is in turn reinforced by the earth element. In the years that immediately follow, however, the wood element prevails. Because the wood and metal elements are nemeses, this is the time when the cosmic energy environment begins to shift, taking an 180-degree turn and heading in the opposite direction. Individuals who have benefited from the metal element will soon face extreme adversity. Tailwinds now turn into headwinds. But what does the president’s death in office have to do with stock investment?
When the nation’s economy is in a tailspin, the luck of the president may not be far behind. Hence, it may be possible to pinpoint the ill fate of the stock market by tracking the luck of the president. Let us now examine the Bazi of President Biden.
Notwithstanding the unknown hour column (time of birth) of Biden’s Bazi, there is no ambiguity as to which element dominates. Major water (9 and K) constitutes the birth month column as well as the celestial post (9) of his birth year, thereby extinguishing the fire of the day principal (4), highly typical of the “governor-compliant,” or “coon-compliant,” pattern of the life setting. The word coon in Chinese means “government official or controlling entity.” The English word tycoon was actually derived from a Chinese word meaning “big coon” or “high ranking government official, or a person of great influence.” According to the teachings of Bazi, when an element overwhelms the day principal, as water overwhelms the day principal minor fire (4) in the case of the president’s Bazi, the luck of the day principal paradoxically gets better when weakened and worse if strengthened. Once again, the strategy of “if you can’t beat them, join them” is at play here. Therefore, the wood and fire elements are bad for President Biden, whereas the metal and water elements are good for him. To confirm this impression, let us take a look at his past life events.
On November 3, 2020, the election date, the energy content was as follows:
This day, filled with the auspicious elements of metal and water, completely extinguished any residual fire in the celestial post of the month, awarding Biden the presidency.
On December 18, 1972, Biden’s first wife and daughter were killed in an automobile accident. The energy content of that date is as follows:
Unfortunately, on this date, Biden’s favorite elements of metal and water were completely channeled to wood 2/B. In this case, when good elements facilitate bad elements, the result is disastrous.
On May 30, 2015, unfortunately, tragedy struck again. This is the day when the President’s son Beau died from brain cancer. The energy makeup of that fateful date is as follows:
According to Bazi’s teaching, when D, E, and F, or minor fire, major fire, and summer earth, appear together in the terrestrial pillars, they will morph into a fiery environment that will easily melt metals in its vicinity, resulting in another great loss for the president. These key markers in Biden’s life reinforce my deduction that the wood and fire elements are hostile to the day principle. Toward the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the drastic energy shift from metal dominance to wood dominance would spell adversity for the president and, by extension, the stock market as well.
Generally, when the husband’s luck is bad, the wife’s luck is bad too, and so is the luck of family members. So let us check the Bazi of the First Lady.
Jill Biden
The day principle is 1 or major wood, which is supported only by 10 or minor water. Therefore, once again, this Bazi is a compliant type, characteristic of the wealth-compliant pattern, given that the day principle is sitting right on top of autumn earth I, which is strengthened by D, fire. So this Bazi is of the wealth-compliant pattern, which is strongly desirous of fire and earth but abhors water and wood. By the beginning of 2022, the year of 9/A or major water/major wood, Mrs. Biden will be in troubled waters, consistent with our overall assessment of the fortunes of first couple.
In 2021, the year of the Ox, the Xin Chou year (辛丑年), represented by 8/B or minor metal/minor earth, the president’s overall luck should be relatively preserved despite some fluctuations. But the year that immediately follows, that is, the year of the Tiger, will be dominated by the wood element. The dramatic shift in the energy field from metal to wood will occur in the beginning of February 2022 (the beginning of the lunar new year), when the year of the Ox turns into the year of the Tiger. This shift in the energy field will be made even sharper by the transition from the last month of the year of the Ox to the first month of the year of the Tiger because these months bear the same energy contents as their respective years—from a metal/earth month in a metal/earth year to a water/wood month in a water/wood year. The president’s luck will take a turn for the worse at this juncture and may continue in this manner for several more years. This global abrupt shift in the energy field may also bring about dramatic changes in people’s fortunes in general. Those who have enjoyed great returns on their investments may suddenly see their portfolios shrink in value. This could, unfortunately, portend an abrupt reversal of fortune for many investors, characterized by a financial crisis of some kind that will precipitate a market crash.
According to their Bazis, a change in fortune seems to be in the offing right around the beginning of the year of the Tiger. What could happen at this critical juncture? Will there be a black swan event of some sort, leading to a sudden turmoil, such as the start of an international conflict; a breakdown of the financial order; a resurgence of the pandemic; or the deteriorating health of the president, perhaps caused by some kind of cardiovascular event such as a stroke? One thing is certain: the onset of the precipitating event is likely to be sudden and unforeseen, and one way or another, it will lead to a meltdown in the marketplace, resulting in the collapse of stock prices. There is also the distinct possibility that by late November or December 2021, when the element of water begins to emerge to reinforce the wood element, cracks in the stock market may begin to show, ushering in the earth-shaking event (pun intended) by no later than February 2022. So be prepared.
Will history repeat itself? The Kennedy Slide
We have been talking about the cycle of sixty all this time and recalling the deaths of presidents who were elected in Geng Zi year on a 60-year cycle. Will history repeat itself? Given that we are predicting a market crash in or before the beginning of 2022, we might want to ask what happened 60 years ago. Enter the Kennedy Slide, which describes the market crash in December 1961, the year of the Ox, which has the same energy content as 2021 (minor metal/minor earth, 8/L). The year 1962 is also the year of the Tiger, designated by the combination of 壬寅 (9/A, or major water/major wood). Although the full force of the wood element was not fully realized until February 1962, the onslaught of the force of wood had already been introduced during December 1961, when Zi (子水), the major water, was already feeding into and nurturing the wood element. The bear market known as the Kennedy Slide seemed to have occurred with no apparent cause; stocks had been doing very well for decades since the recovery from the Great Depression of 1929. President Kennedy’s luck seemed to be taking a turn for the worse about a year after his successful election campaign in 1960. Obviously, it is good luck to have an achievement named after its inventor, such as the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in physics, the Fourier series in mathematics, or the Schrodinger equation in chemistry. But a stock market crash named after you, even when it is not your fault? That is bad luck!
In November 1962, on the heels of the market setback bearing his name, Kennedy had to deal with the Cuban missile crisis, which brought the world’s two most powerful nations to the brink of nuclear conflict. Soon thereafter, Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963, while campaigning in Dallas.
Before his death, President Kennedy was quietly escalating the United States’ involvement in Vietnam. This eventually led to the Vietnam War, which plunged the United States into a protracted period of upheaval, causing the loss of numerous lives, countless injuries among the armed forces, wastage of billions of dollars, and untold suffering on both sides. This once again attests to the close linkage between the nation’s destiny and the president’s luck.
In the present, even though the sharp inflection point of cosmic energy is obviously pegged at the beginning of February 2022, the beginning of the market crash may similarly be ushered in by November or December 2021, paralleling the market downturn at the end of 1961 when Kennedy was president.
If a lesson from history is to be learned here, it is that investors should tread cautiously by the last quarter of 2021. Armed with the predictive power of I Ching, we may be able to avoid severe bloodletting of our financial resources this time around. Conversely, one might even be able to gain substantially by possessing this prescient knowledge. In 1962, the stock market lost about 27% of its value and the market remained extremely volatile throughout the year, only stabilizing at the end of the missile crisis. The 1962 market downturn lasted for almost a year. If history is going to repeat itself in accordance with my I Ching prediction, similar to the case of 1962, how bad is the incoming crash going to be this time around? The Kennedy Slide was not related to any particular financial crisis or political event. Would the crash I predict will take place toward the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 behave differently? The answer is yes because there are ample fundamental reasons for the market to tank this time. For one, the national debt has now reached an unsustainable level. Something has to change. If the house of cards built on the shaky foundation of borrowed money starts to collapse, the resulting economic tremor will be at the high end of the Richter scale.
3. The fortunes of the high-ranking government officials responsible for managing the finances of the nation
Both Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are key figures in finance, not only within this country but throughout the world. What they say or do will often move the market dramatically. Their Bazis show that metal and earth elements signify good luck for them, whereas water and wood elements signify bad luck for them. Their luck will therefore suddenly reverse in unison around the end of 2021, the year of the Ox (metal/earth), and the beginning of 2022, the year of the Tiger (water/wood). This will accompany the sudden worsening luck for the president.
Without exact knowledge of the time column, it is difficult to discern whether the day principle is too weak or too strong based on the available birth data for Janet Yellen. So, we are going to conduct reverse engineering by examining her life events so far. She was married in June 1978, an auspicious event in her life. The energetic components of this day are as follows:
The copious quantities of fire and earth are clearly evident, demonstrating that Yellen’s day principle is on the weak side, which apparently benefited from strengthening the elements of fire and earth. This preliminary conclusion is further engendered by the cosmic energetic makeup of her life during her successful stint as the Federal Reserve Chair from February 2014 to February 2018:
Yellen’s four years of service took place during her life stage of 6/L or earth/summer earth. As you can see in the layout, the earth element had retained its dominance, providing good fortune for her. Based on this assessment, it can be deduced that the elements of water and wood would bring about adversity in Yellen’s life, which is exactly what is going to happen when the year of the Ox (earth) transitions to 2022, the year of the Tiger (wood).
Now let us turn our attention to another crucial figure in the world of finance, the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. The life chart below shows that his day principle is major fire (3), reinforced by the major wood in the birth month column as well as the terrestrial pillar in the birth year column. Given that his day principle is excessively strong, it will do well by countering the wood and fire elements and by its rendezvous with earth, metal, and water. His life has had a very good run so far because his life stages up to now have been composed of these favorable elements. Starting in 2023, his next life stage will be filled with major fire, whereas the wood element in 2022 should bring about this change sooner. Once again, his good luck will turn bad towards the end of 2021or the beginning of 2022, much like that of Secretary Yellen and the President.
A closer look at the Bazis of Powell and Yellen would provide clues to the evolution of their fortunes. Both officials’ constitutions strongly prefer the element of earth, suppressed by the element of wood. Unfortunately, the years 2022 and 2023 are both characterized by excessive water and wood, predicting hardships for both officials. If the strain on their luck is job related and not caused by disturbances in their personal lives, then it must be presumed that calamity awaits the stock market. The resultant depressed market will last for a rather protracted period, probably exceeding two years, paralleling the luck of these officials. We should keep in mind that the bear market lasted three years after the Great Depression, and the stock market lost 89% of its value.
4. The fortunes of corporate America as revealed by the luck of a group of CEOs of key corporations representing various important industries
At the time of this writing (September 26, 2021), few market watchers would predict a market crash. A market correction, maybe. Consequently, I must double-check my findings by assembling additional indications that such a dire event is going to happen in the immediate future.
Going back to 2009, I analyzed the Bazis of a number of prominent individuals in the business world and came to the conclusion that the stock market would soon crash. To support my prediction this time around, I performed similar analyses of a number of CEOs of companies representing different industries and came away with a similar conclusion.
Instead of boring readers with detailed analyses of the Bazis of major US corporations’ CEOs, I have summarized the results in a table form.
Stocks I Have Been Watching (in my watch list) with birth date of CEO available
Stock Name of Key Executives
Sector Symbol Company CEO and/or Board Chair
Finance AIG American International Group Inc Brian Duperreault
AXP American Express Company Kenneth Chenault ?current chair
BAC Bank of America Corp Brian Moynihan
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Warren Buffett
BNY Bank of New York Mellon Thomas P (Todd) Gibbons
COF Capital One Financial Corp. Richard Fairbank
JPM JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon
MA Mastercard Inc Ajaypal Singh Banga
MS Morgan Stanley James P. Gorman
SCHW Charles Schwab Charles Schwab
Air
Trans- EADSF Airbus Guillaume Faury
portation
BA Boeing Co. Dave Calhoun, James McNerney
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. Ed H. Bastian
LUV Southwest Airlines Gary Clayton Kelly
UAL United Airlines Scott Kirby
Industrial CAT Caterpillar Inc. Douglas Oberhelman
F Ford Motor Company Bill Ford, Jim Farley
TATA Tata Motors Ratan Tata
TSLA Tesla Inc. Elon Musk
High AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Lisa Su
Tech
AAPL Apple Inc. Tim Cook
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Jeff Bezos
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. John Chambers
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Sergey Brin, Larry Page
NOK Nokia ?Stephen Elop or Rajeev Suri
ORCL Oracle Larry Ellison
Obviously, it is impractical to do this with every single corporation, and for many corporations—even some major entities—the CEO’s birth data are not available. Even when the data are available, an incomplete Bazi due to the absence of data in the time column would certainly distract from the accuracy of the prediction. But given that the abundance of evidence points to a very well-divined trend, my confidence level in the accuracy of my predictions is at no less than 90%. As a precautionary note, no one should make their investment decisions based on my predictions. I do not want to be viewed as a modern-day Cassandra.
According to these people’s Bazis, a reverse of fortune seems to be in the offing right around the beginning of 2022, the year of the Tiger. What can happen at this critical juncture? Will there be a black swan event of some sort leading to sudden turmoil, such as the start of an international conflict, a breakdown of the financial order, or perhaps a resurgence of the pandemic? One thing is for certain: the onset of the precipitating event is likely to be sudden and unforeseen and is likely, one way or another, to lead to a financial meltdown and the collapse of stock prices.
To conclude this chapter, I would like to share a few of my observations with readers.
China is currently working on establishing a digital currency. This move would have a dampening effect on the future acceptance of all cryptocurrencies because it would be supported by the governing body of a major economy. In 2001, the metal earth year, bitcoin has enjoyed unparalleled popularity as its value has soared beyond $6,000 per coin. Bitcoin is even endorsed by the Salvadorian government as the official acceptable currency, a move embraced by the New York Bank of Mellon and praised by Elon Musk. The United States has been able to continue printing money with minimal obstacles because the American dollar functions as an international currency. The advent of Chinese digital currency may change the landscape of international commerce; without reliance on US dollars, there may be significant repercussions. Based on the analysis shown in the table, multiple financial institutions may encounter financial hardship. Whether the stock market’s severe downturn is caused by a black swan event within the financial system or an unexpected event outside of it, the ill effects will remain the same. Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies do not possess any intrinsic value and may very well be the first to go. Many sectors, including airline companies, that expect rosier days in 2022 with the passing of the pandemic, may be faced with a rude awakening.
Unlike the Kennedy Slide that happened sixty years ago, resulting in a drop of the market value by 27% without any actual discernible reason, there is more than one reason for this impending market crash. Besides, the cosmic force bringing about the crash may persist for two years or more, causing prolonged economic disruptions and spreading misery all around. So be prepared.