In the autumn of 2021, my foresight detected an impending stock market crash, and true to my prediction, the market began a downward spiral, with the S&P 500 experiencing a decline of 19%, and the NASDAQ plunging by 30% prior to November 2022.
As a result of my proactive approach, I managed to avert a substantial loss in my portfolio. I achieved this by liquidating over 90% of my equity holdings and converting the resulting funds into short-term T-bills, a move that provided me with a sense of accomplishment.
However, over the past four months, approximately from April to July, the stock market unexpectedly staged a rally, reclaiming a significant portion of its previously lost ground. This resurgence prompted me to reflect on the validity of my strategy. At present, numerous market pundits are confidently asserting that the ongoing upward trend has substantial endurance due to the robust state of the economy. They cite low unemployment rates and easing inflation as evidence of this strength. Regrettably, these optimistic investors appear to overlook a critical variable: the health of the U.S. populace.
It has been projected that around 80% of the U.S. population has been afflicted by COVID-19 at some point. Among them, 15% to 20% continue to grapple with lingering symptoms termed “long Covid.” This condition is characterized by an array of debilitating symptoms, including severe fatigue and cognitive impairment, to the extent that gainful employment becomes an arduous task. Even those managing to retain their jobs inevitably suffer from reduced work efficiency.
Recent estimates suggest that at least 23 million Americans are now coping with the effects of long Covid, including approximately 7% of the U.S. workforce. This translates to one out of every 14 workers still contending with this persistent ailment. Consequently, the scarcity of laborers across diverse industries is unsurprising, leading to job vacancies that remain unfilled.
The ostensibly low unemployment rate is more indicative of a workforce struggling with health issues than a thriving economy. What remains clear is that America is entrenched in debt on all levels — from the federal government to average American households and college students. The prevailing sentiment seems to be “enjoy the present, pay later,” a trend that gained momentum especially in the aftermath of the pandemic. The pent-up consumer demand has emerged as a driving force propelling the economy forward. However, with rising interest rates, the costs associated with housing (mortgages), transportation (including auto loans), and education (student loans) have surged. Instead of conserving financial resources, more and more individuals are relying on credit card loans and tapping into their retirement savings prematurely to sustain their spending habits. This approach only serves to exacerbate inflation, and inevitably leading to a reckoning when debts come due.
The recent surge in the stock market has been underpinned by a misguided assumption of economic resilience. This misconception is bound to surface when the temporary boost fueled by consumer expenditure loses steam, potentially triggering a substantial market downturn. Unfortunately, many are rushing headlong towards this precipice, oblivious to the looming reality. My projection is that the market is poised for another downturn, possibly even more severe than the crash of 2022. The forthcoming November might prove to be a trying time, incidentally aligning with an inauspicious phase for President Biden from November to January.
The United States economy, now sick with inflation, has been under the care of the foremost doctor of economics, Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve. For his treatment to work he must first make a correct diagnosis. So what are the root causes of the current unbridled inflation? Several come to mind:
1. Supply chain disruption 2. High energy costs resulting from the Ukraine–Russia war 3. Increased cost of goods from tariffs 4. Increased money supply owing to quantitative easing
Interest rate hikes through tightening the money supply address only one of the root causes and do nothing to mitigate the other equally important ones. Without a comprehensive approach to eliminating these causes, inflation will remain unchecked and lead to higher wage demands, which in turn will continue to fuel the engine of inflation, thus perpetuating the vicious cycle.
The rapid and aggressive escalation of interest rates will undoubtedly cause a deep recession. When that happens it will take the patient a very long time to recover. Therapy offers limited benefits and is inappropriate for the diagnosis! If the problem is only obesity, why administer a potent cancer drug treatment that has multiple serious side effects? The solution, in this case, may be worse than the problem.
Even when a correct diagnosis is made and the right therapy administered, it is still important to remember that the remedy should not be applied too quickly for fear that the patient may not be able to tolerate it. For instance, when a patient is suffering from hyponatremia or has too little sodium content in his blood, too rapid a correction could be fatal.
The United States economy has long been accustomed to an extremely low interest rate environment, and an abrupt and rapid reversal in interest rates would likely precipitate dire consequences because consumers and businesses would not have time to adapt to the new norm.
On October 13, 2022, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rallied 828 points, NASDAQ 232 points, and the S&P 500 ninety-three points. There are apparently enough investors who think that the market will soon turn positive again, as it did in March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic began, and in the spring of 2009 during the Great Recession. Little do they know that this time the road for a turnaround will be long and hard. If you think the market has performed poorly this year, wait another six months and you will realize that you ain’t seen nothing yet. The time bomb is ticking, but the party is still going strong while the revelers remain clueless!
Last fall I tried to publish my book, Winning Big in Stock with I Ching, but was unable to do so in time to sound the alarm about the imminent stock market crash, which I correctly predicted. To counter any potential claim that my observation was based on hindsight, I time-stamped my prediction with a blog in October 2021, depicting the following scenario.
The black swan event that I mentioned in my blog was the Ukraine–Russia war. The stock market began to unwind right after its peak in November 2021. In just a few short months the market indices suffered losses of 20 to 30%, reaching a trough in June 2022. Practicing what I preached, I sold a good 90% of my stockholdings, which weighed more heavily in material and technology, and managed to avoid a 30%-plus shrinkage of the value of my portfolio. The stock market then briefly recovered by 10% in August, only to fall again in September. Several pundits now opine about an increased probability of a recession, though it is already a foregone conclusion in my opinion. The market has lately been quite volatile because there are still investors who believe that the market will rebound because the economy is still strong and unemployment still low. Some economic advisers even continue to advocate that the current environment offers good buying opportunities. On the contrary, I see the future differently. When you shoot an arrow straight up into the air, it will decelerate before reaching its highest point and then reverse direction, accelerating as it plummets to the ground. There are clear signs that the economy is slowing, as reflected in the housing sector.
I now predict a second crash this winter, wreaking even greater havoc in the equity market. Because of the Ukraine–Russia war, the energy crunch will be especially acute for Europe and Japan, which include the world’s third, fourth, and sixth-largest economies. Equally important is the devaluation of these nations’ currencies stemming from the strength of the dollar as a consequence of rapidly escalating interest rates in the United States because these countries have to pay for their energy supply with petrodollars, i.e., revenues denominated in United States dollars. Prohibitively expensive oil and gas will shatter many industries in these regions.
It would be euphemistic to characterize the global economic condition next year as a recession. It will look more like a depression than a recession, and persist much longer and cause more pain than expected, because the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting strategies are destined to fail despite its super-aggressive monetary tightening policy, which I will describe in my next blog.
The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, is not heeding the above warning during the recent Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Chairman Powell has a penchant for reacting too slowly to the specter of past inflation, then escalating interest rates with extreme measures that undoubtedly will lead to a severe recession. His current assessment of the prospect of a soft landing for the US economy is, in my view, overly optimistic. Stock investors, to their own detriment, have relied too heavily on his words. According to my analysis of Mr. Powell’s Bazi, his luck is going to dwindle further in 2023, leading me to conclude that the probability of a severe recession is virtually one hundred percent despite all his valiant efforts to tame inflation. Why? Because he is not properly addressing the root cause. Consider the following factors:
1. Because of the war in Ukraine, European nations face an unprecedented rise in energy costs that will aggravate inflationary pressures, incapacitate industrial production, and lead to their economic collapse. The concomitant dire global impact will unwind the US economy, and multinational corporations will experience unprecedented hard times, as FedEx Corporation has already forewarned.
2. Rapidly increased interest rates will inevitably bring down the housing sector because fewer and fewer families would be able to afford the spike in mortgage rates. Home values will drop precipitously. Consumers, suddenly feeling poorer, will hold back on spending, which will erode corporate earnings and ruin equity markets.
3. When stock prices drop, all investment portfolios shrink, including those in retirement accounts such as 401(k) plans, and consumer sentiment will grow even more negative—and the vicious cycle continues.
4. Poor corporate performance will result in layoffs, aggravating unemployment and deepening the recession.
The rapid rise in interest rates is no solution to the current economic plight and looming economic disaster. With its current national debt close to $30 trillion and its population around 330 million, the United States’ debt burden on each citizen is almost $90,000. A family of four will have to shoulder close to $360,000 of the national debt, much more so than many home mortgages, which a mere fraction of the population can currently afford. Rising interest rates will cause interest payments on the national debt alone to go up exponentially. In other words, we have become our own loan sharks! The magnitude of debt is unsustainable.
Summary and Explanation of “The Stock Market Crash around the Corner,” the Last Chapter of My Book Winning Big in Stocks with I Ching
Without the background knowledge contained in the earlier chapters of my yet-to-be-published book, my audience may have difficulties grasping the important concepts presented in the blog, “The Stock Market Crash around the Corner,” I posted on November 26, 2021. Therefore, I hereby hasten to supplement the blog with certain basic information to provide a better understanding of its themes.
I Ching, which means “the book of change,” is a body of knowledge on divination in ancient China. Usually, an extraordinary occurrence such as a strong gust snapping a flagpole or a fish jumping out of its bowl for no apparent reason would arouse the desire to predict future events by employing I Ching. These unusual phenomena are signs of interaction of the forces of nature; they indicate the trajectories of future events. From the practice of I Ching has come a new body of knowledge known as life science, or Bazi. Bazi calculations are used to predict an individual’s life events or fortune based on their date of birth. In this field, human birth is, of course, considered to be an extraordinary occurrence. According to ancient science, the cosmic forces that permeate and influence our world, categorized as the five elements, dominate each other in a cyclical manner. The energy of these five elements, water, wood, fire, earth, and metal, waxes and wanes in cycles of sixty—sixty years, sixty months, sixty days, and sixty hours. Based on an individual’s birth year, birth month, birthday, and birth hour, it is possible to track the individual’s future by integrating these data with the cosmic calendar.
Having studied Bazi for years, I discovered that this method is highly valuable in tracking a corporation’s fortune by tracking the fortune of its CEO, if their birth data are available. I kept my investment portfolio out of harm’s way during the great recession of 2008/2009 and took great advantage of the subsequent economic recovery, achieving a spectacular outcome. My assessment of the current market condition has led me to believe that a severe downturn of the stock market is imminent, with a 90% probability that it will happen between Thanksgiving 2021 and Valentine’s Day 2022, a window of less than three months. I arrived at this conclusion based on the following analyses:
Historically, the stock market has crashed every eight to fourteen years. The market has been on a bull run for more than twelve years. If history is any guide, the next crash is not far off. More important, multiple negative factors such as unremitting inflation, the persistence of the pandemic, supply chain interruptions, and overspending by the federal government are creating a perfect storm for the market to crash as the bull runs out of steam.
The luck of the nation’s chief executive, President Biden, is about to take a dramatic turn for the worse. All US presidents elected in the Geng Zi year (7/K) died during their first terms in office: William Henry Harrison (elected in 1840), William McKinley (elected in 1900), and John F. Kennedy (elected in 1960). These seemingly unconnected events actually followed the sixty-year cycle of I Ching. The year of Geng Zi, which recurs every sixty years, represents a sharp inflection point in the cosmic energy field, transitioning from metal dominance to wood dominance. This reverses many people’s luck, including that of presidents. Biden’s Bazi appears to follow a similar pattern. Sixty years ago, the stock market crashed around Christmas 1961, in what is known as the Kennedy Slide. There was no discernible cause for the crash. It just happened. This time around, however, there are plenty of reasons for the market to tank.
The transition from 2021 to 2022 also means a drastic reversal of fortune for the financial managers of the country, namely, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen. This may very well portend dire trouble ahead for the US economy and severe adversity for the stock market.
The Bazi analyses of a number of CEOs of major corporations in several key sectors such as finance, technology, and industrial point to a common trend: the worsening luck of these CEOs and, by proxy, their respective companies. The analyses of these individuals’ Bazis may not be 100% accurate because of a lack of information on their birth hours. Therefore, some margin of error is unavoidable. But taken together, the data seem to be pointing to a unified direction of deteriorating fortunes for these CEOs and their companies based on years of observation. This time around, the market downturn is likely to be prolonged and severe.
My prediction: There is at least a 90% chance that the US stock market will crash sometime between Thanksgiving 2021 and Valentine’s Day 2022. This downturn will be more severe than usual and will likely last for two years or more. A black swan event will probably precipitate this calamitous outcome.
Now, how did I reach this extraordinary conclusion? I employed a four-pronged analysis as follows:
The cyclical nature of the market
The link between the fate of the nation and the luck of its chief executive, the president
The fortunes of the high-ranking government officials responsible for managing the finances of the nation
The fortunes of corporate America as revealed by the luck of a group of CEOs of key corporations representing various important industries
1. The cyclical nature of the market
There has always been a horde of pundits predicting stock market crashes. Historically, the market has crashed every nine to fourteen years or so. If one keeps on predicting the burst of the stock market bubble, it will eventually happen, as it has done so many times in the past. However, pinpointing the next market downturn accurately is tricky business. With the help of I Ching, however, such a task becomes eminently more manageable.
As the old adage, “Reversal is inevitable when extremes are reached,” indicates, the stock market always goes up and down in a cyclical manner, especially when stocks are either oversold or overbought. That the stock market crashed every eight to fourteen years or so has been evident in the recent past—1978, 1986, 2000, and 2009. At this time, on September 11, 2021, there has been, by and large, an unrelenting continuous bull market for twelve years. If the market behaves in the same way as it did in the past, a crash can be expected in the near future. At the moment, however, the whole world has been flush with an inordinate amount of liquidity as a result of quantitative easing initiated by the world’s major economies, marked by extremely low interest rates. To generate any kind of decent return, there is not much choice except for stock investments. Therefore, at this point, the bull run will continue unabated until stock prices inflate to an unsustainable level. The stock market will then reverse itself, but how soon will this happen? Is there a reliable way to foretell “exactly” when this calamitous event will take place?
2. The link between the fate of the nation and the luck of its chief executive, the president
Before I delve further into this subject, let me digress on certain curious yet undisputed historical events—deaths of presidents while in office.
Ever since George Washington was elected the first president of the United States in 1889 until the presidency of Donald Trump, every president elected in the year of Geng Zi (7/K, 庚子年) died in office. Are these just curious coincidences or evidence of the logic of destiny? Here is what the historical record shows:
Elected 1840: William Henry Harrison died from pneumonia on April 4, 1841, one month after inauguration.
Elected 1900: William McKinley died on September 14, 1901, from a gunshot wound sustained eight days earlier.
Elected 1960: John F Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963.
The common theme of the deaths of these presidents is their abrupt onset and traumatic nature.
As you may recall from our earlier discussion on the cycle of 60 pertaining to the way the celestial posts and terrestrial supports are combined in 60 different ways, Geng and Zi (庚子, 7/K) respectively represent major metal and major water. The year of Geng Zi comes along only every 60 years. The years of Zi are all years of the rat, which recur every 12 years. As you may have noticed, 1840, 1900, 1960, and 2020 are all 60 years apart. The deaths of presidents in office seem to have followed a familiar pattern. Are such repetitious events a matter of coincidence, or do they follow some unfathomable cosmic logic? President Joe Biden was elected in 2020, also a Geng Zi year. What is going to happen to him? After all, he is the oldest person ever elected to the US presidency.
The presidency of the United States is the most powerful position in the most powerful country in the world. All the stars must have lined up for someone to be elected to such a lofty office. On the contrary, however, death represents the ultimate bad luck because a person’s life force is snuffed out. Then, what is the mechanism by which good luck plunges into an abyss of bad luck within a few short years, that is, within the term of a presidency? The theorems of I Ching offer a perfectly logical answer.
The Geng Zi year (7/K 庚子年) is immediately followed by the Xin Chou year (8/L 辛丑年), which is dominated by the metal element, which is in turn reinforced by the earth element. In the years that immediately follow, however, the wood element prevails. Because the wood and metal elements are nemeses, this is the time when the cosmic energy environment begins to shift, taking an 180-degree turn and heading in the opposite direction. Individuals who have benefited from the metal element will soon face extreme adversity. Tailwinds now turn into headwinds. But what does the president’s death in office have to do with stock investment?
When the nation’s economy is in a tailspin, the luck of the president may not be far behind. Hence, it may be possible to pinpoint the ill fate of the stock market by tracking the luck of the president. Let us now examine the Bazi of President Biden.
Notwithstanding the unknown hour column (time of birth) of Biden’s Bazi, there is no ambiguity as to which element dominates. Major water (9 and K) constitutes the birth month column as well as the celestial post (9) of his birth year, thereby extinguishing the fire of the day principal (4), highly typical of the “governor-compliant,” or “coon-compliant,” pattern of the life setting. The word coon in Chinese means “government official or controlling entity.” The English word tycoon was actually derived from a Chinese word meaning “big coon” or “high ranking government official, or a person of great influence.” According to the teachings of Bazi, when an element overwhelms the day principal, as water overwhelms the day principal minor fire (4) in the case of the president’s Bazi, the luck of the day principal paradoxically gets better when weakened and worse if strengthened. Once again, the strategy of “if you can’t beat them, join them” is at play here. Therefore, the wood and fire elements are bad for President Biden, whereas the metal and water elements are good for him. To confirm this impression, let us take a look at his past life events.
On November 3, 2020, the election date, the energy content was as follows:
This day, filled with the auspicious elements of metal and water, completely extinguished any residual fire in the celestial post of the month, awarding Biden the presidency.
On December 18, 1972, Biden’s first wife and daughter were killed in an automobile accident. The energy content of that date is as follows:
Unfortunately, on this date, Biden’s favorite elements of metal and water were completely channeled to wood 2/B. In this case, when good elements facilitate bad elements, the result is disastrous.
On May 30, 2015, unfortunately, tragedy struck again. This is the day when the President’s son Beau died from brain cancer. The energy makeup of that fateful date is as follows:
According to Bazi’s teaching, when D, E, and F, or minor fire, major fire, and summer earth, appear together in the terrestrial pillars, they will morph into a fiery environment that will easily melt metals in its vicinity, resulting in another great loss for the president. These key markers in Biden’s life reinforce my deduction that the wood and fire elements are hostile to the day principle. Toward the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the drastic energy shift from metal dominance to wood dominance would spell adversity for the president and, by extension, the stock market as well.
Generally, when the husband’s luck is bad, the wife’s luck is bad too, and so is the luck of family members. So let us check the Bazi of the First Lady.
Jill Biden
The day principle is 1 or major wood, which is supported only by 10 or minor water. Therefore, once again, this Bazi is a compliant type, characteristic of the wealth-compliant pattern, given that the day principle is sitting right on top of autumn earth I, which is strengthened by D, fire. So this Bazi is of the wealth-compliant pattern, which is strongly desirous of fire and earth but abhors water and wood. By the beginning of 2022, the year of 9/A or major water/major wood, Mrs. Biden will be in troubled waters, consistent with our overall assessment of the fortunes of first couple.
In 2021, the year of the Ox, the Xin Chou year (辛丑年), represented by 8/B or minor metal/minor earth, the president’s overall luck should be relatively preserved despite some fluctuations. But the year that immediately follows, that is, the year of the Tiger, will be dominated by the wood element. The dramatic shift in the energy field from metal to wood will occur in the beginning of February 2022 (the beginning of the lunar new year), when the year of the Ox turns into the year of the Tiger. This shift in the energy field will be made even sharper by the transition from the last month of the year of the Ox to the first month of the year of the Tiger because these months bear the same energy contents as their respective years—from a metal/earth month in a metal/earth year to a water/wood month in a water/wood year. The president’s luck will take a turn for the worse at this juncture and may continue in this manner for several more years. This global abrupt shift in the energy field may also bring about dramatic changes in people’s fortunes in general. Those who have enjoyed great returns on their investments may suddenly see their portfolios shrink in value. This could, unfortunately, portend an abrupt reversal of fortune for many investors, characterized by a financial crisis of some kind that will precipitate a market crash.
According to their Bazis, a change in fortune seems to be in the offing right around the beginning of the year of the Tiger. What could happen at this critical juncture? Will there be a black swan event of some sort, leading to a sudden turmoil, such as the start of an international conflict; a breakdown of the financial order; a resurgence of the pandemic; or the deteriorating health of the president, perhaps caused by some kind of cardiovascular event such as a stroke? One thing is certain: the onset of the precipitating event is likely to be sudden and unforeseen, and one way or another, it will lead to a meltdown in the marketplace, resulting in the collapse of stock prices. There is also the distinct possibility that by late November or December 2021, when the element of water begins to emerge to reinforce the wood element, cracks in the stock market may begin to show, ushering in the earth-shaking event (pun intended) by no later than February 2022. So be prepared.
Will history repeat itself? The Kennedy Slide
We have been talking about the cycle of sixty all this time and recalling the deaths of presidents who were elected in Geng Zi year on a 60-year cycle. Will history repeat itself? Given that we are predicting a market crash in or before the beginning of 2022, we might want to ask what happened 60 years ago. Enter the Kennedy Slide, which describes the market crash in December 1961, the year of the Ox, which has the same energy content as 2021 (minor metal/minor earth, 8/L). The year 1962 is also the year of the Tiger, designated by the combination of 壬寅 (9/A, or major water/major wood). Although the full force of the wood element was not fully realized until February 1962, the onslaught of the force of wood had already been introduced during December 1961, when Zi (子水), the major water, was already feeding into and nurturing the wood element. The bear market known as the Kennedy Slide seemed to have occurred with no apparent cause; stocks had been doing very well for decades since the recovery from the Great Depression of 1929. President Kennedy’s luck seemed to be taking a turn for the worse about a year after his successful election campaign in 1960. Obviously, it is good luck to have an achievement named after its inventor, such as the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in physics, the Fourier series in mathematics, or the Schrodinger equation in chemistry. But a stock market crash named after you, even when it is not your fault? That is bad luck!
In November 1962, on the heels of the market setback bearing his name, Kennedy had to deal with the Cuban missile crisis, which brought the world’s two most powerful nations to the brink of nuclear conflict. Soon thereafter, Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963, while campaigning in Dallas.
Before his death, President Kennedy was quietly escalating the United States’ involvement in Vietnam. This eventually led to the Vietnam War, which plunged the United States into a protracted period of upheaval, causing the loss of numerous lives, countless injuries among the armed forces, wastage of billions of dollars, and untold suffering on both sides. This once again attests to the close linkage between the nation’s destiny and the president’s luck.
In the present, even though the sharp inflection point of cosmic energy is obviously pegged at the beginning of February 2022, the beginning of the market crash may similarly be ushered in by November or December 2021, paralleling the market downturn at the end of 1961 when Kennedy was president.
If a lesson from history is to be learned here, it is that investors should tread cautiously by the last quarter of 2021. Armed with the predictive power of I Ching, we may be able to avoid severe bloodletting of our financial resources this time around. Conversely, one might even be able to gain substantially by possessing this prescient knowledge. In 1962, the stock market lost about 27% of its value and the market remained extremely volatile throughout the year, only stabilizing at the end of the missile crisis. The 1962 market downturn lasted for almost a year. If history is going to repeat itself in accordance with my I Ching prediction, similar to the case of 1962, how bad is the incoming crash going to be this time around? The Kennedy Slide was not related to any particular financial crisis or political event. Would the crash I predict will take place toward the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022 behave differently? The answer is yes because there are ample fundamental reasons for the market to tank this time. For one, the national debt has now reached an unsustainable level. Something has to change. If the house of cards built on the shaky foundation of borrowed money starts to collapse, the resulting economic tremor will be at the high end of the Richter scale.
3. The fortunes of the high-ranking government officials responsible for managing the finances of the nation
Both Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are key figures in finance, not only within this country but throughout the world. What they say or do will often move the market dramatically. Their Bazis show that metal and earth elements signify good luck for them, whereas water and wood elements signify bad luck for them. Their luck will therefore suddenly reverse in unison around the end of 2021, the year of the Ox (metal/earth), and the beginning of 2022, the year of the Tiger (water/wood). This will accompany the sudden worsening luck for the president.
Without exact knowledge of the time column, it is difficult to discern whether the day principle is too weak or too strong based on the available birth data for Janet Yellen. So, we are going to conduct reverse engineering by examining her life events so far. She was married in June 1978, an auspicious event in her life. The energetic components of this day are as follows:
The copious quantities of fire and earth are clearly evident, demonstrating that Yellen’s day principle is on the weak side, which apparently benefited from strengthening the elements of fire and earth. This preliminary conclusion is further engendered by the cosmic energetic makeup of her life during her successful stint as the Federal Reserve Chair from February 2014 to February 2018:
Yellen’s four years of service took place during her life stage of 6/L or earth/summer earth. As you can see in the layout, the earth element had retained its dominance, providing good fortune for her. Based on this assessment, it can be deduced that the elements of water and wood would bring about adversity in Yellen’s life, which is exactly what is going to happen when the year of the Ox (earth) transitions to 2022, the year of the Tiger (wood).
Now let us turn our attention to another crucial figure in the world of finance, the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell. The life chart below shows that his day principle is major fire (3), reinforced by the major wood in the birth month column as well as the terrestrial pillar in the birth year column. Given that his day principle is excessively strong, it will do well by countering the wood and fire elements and by its rendezvous with earth, metal, and water. His life has had a very good run so far because his life stages up to now have been composed of these favorable elements. Starting in 2023, his next life stage will be filled with major fire, whereas the wood element in 2022 should bring about this change sooner. Once again, his good luck will turn bad towards the end of 2021or the beginning of 2022, much like that of Secretary Yellen and the President.
A closer look at the Bazis of Powell and Yellen would provide clues to the evolution of their fortunes. Both officials’ constitutions strongly prefer the element of earth, suppressed by the element of wood. Unfortunately, the years 2022 and 2023 are both characterized by excessive water and wood, predicting hardships for both officials. If the strain on their luck is job related and not caused by disturbances in their personal lives, then it must be presumed that calamity awaits the stock market. The resultant depressed market will last for a rather protracted period, probably exceeding two years, paralleling the luck of these officials. We should keep in mind that the bear market lasted three years after the Great Depression, and the stock market lost 89% of its value.
4. The fortunes of corporate America as revealed by the luck of a group of CEOs of key corporations representing various important industries
At the time of this writing (September 26, 2021), few market watchers would predict a market crash. A market correction, maybe. Consequently, I must double-check my findings by assembling additional indications that such a dire event is going to happen in the immediate future.
Going back to 2009, I analyzed the Bazis of a number of prominent individuals in the business world and came to the conclusion that the stock market would soon crash. To support my prediction this time around, I performed similar analyses of a number of CEOs of companies representing different industries and came away with a similar conclusion.
Instead of boring readers with detailed analyses of the Bazis of major US corporations’ CEOs, I have summarized the results in a table form.
Stocks I Have Been Watching (in my watch list) with birth date of CEO available
Stock Name of Key Executives
SectorSymbolCompanyCEO and/or Board Chair
Finance AIG American International Group Inc Brian Duperreault
AXP American Express Company Kenneth Chenault ?current chair
BAC Bank of America Corp Brian Moynihan
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Warren Buffett
BNY Bank of New York Mellon Thomas P (Todd) Gibbons
COF Capital One Financial Corp. Richard Fairbank
JPM JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon
MA Mastercard Inc Ajaypal Singh Banga
MS Morgan Stanley James P. Gorman
SCHW Charles Schwab Charles Schwab
Air
Trans- EADSF Airbus Guillaume Faury
portation
BA Boeing Co. Dave Calhoun, James McNerney
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. Ed H. Bastian
LUV Southwest Airlines Gary Clayton Kelly
UAL United Airlines Scott Kirby
Industrial CAT Caterpillar Inc. Douglas Oberhelman
F Ford Motor Company Bill Ford, Jim Farley
TATA Tata Motors Ratan Tata
TSLA Tesla Inc. Elon Musk
High AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Lisa Su
Tech
AAPL Apple Inc. Tim Cook
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Jeff Bezos
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. John Chambers
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Sergey Brin, Larry Page
NOK Nokia ?Stephen Elop or Rajeev Suri
ORCL Oracle Larry Ellison
Obviously, it is impractical to do this with every single corporation, and for many corporations—even some major entities—the CEO’s birth data are not available. Even when the data are available, an incomplete Bazi due to the absence of data in the time column would certainly distract from the accuracy of the prediction. But given that the abundance of evidence points to a very well-divined trend, my confidence level in the accuracy of my predictions is at no less than 90%. As a precautionary note, no one should make their investment decisions based on my predictions. I do not want to be viewed as a modern-day Cassandra.
According to these people’s Bazis, a reverse of fortune seems to be in the offing right around the beginning of 2022, the year of the Tiger. What can happen at this critical juncture? Will there be a black swan event of some sort leading to sudden turmoil, such as the start of an international conflict, a breakdown of the financial order, or perhaps a resurgence of the pandemic? One thing is for certain: the onset of the precipitating event is likely to be sudden and unforeseen and is likely, one way or another, to lead to a financial meltdown and the collapse of stock prices.
To conclude this chapter, I would like to share a few of my observations with readers.
China is currently working on establishing a digital currency. This move would have a dampening effect on the future acceptance of all cryptocurrencies because it would be supported by the governing body of a major economy. In 2001, the metal earth year, bitcoin has enjoyed unparalleled popularity as its value has soared beyond $6,000 per coin. Bitcoin is even endorsed by the Salvadorian government as the official acceptable currency, a move embraced by the New York Bank of Mellon and praised by Elon Musk. The United States has been able to continue printing money with minimal obstacles because the American dollar functions as an international currency. The advent of Chinese digital currency may change the landscape of international commerce; without reliance on US dollars, there may be significant repercussions. Based on the analysis shown in the table, multiple financial institutions may encounter financial hardship. Whether the stock market’s severe downturn is caused by a black swan event within the financial system or an unexpected event outside of it, the ill effects will remain the same. Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies do not possess any intrinsic value and may very well be the first to go. Many sectors, including airline companies, that expect rosier days in 2022 with the passing of the pandemic, may be faced with a rude awakening.
Unlike the Kennedy Slide that happened sixty years ago, resulting in a drop of the market value by 27% without any actual discernible reason, there is more than one reason for this impending market crash. Besides, the cosmic force bringing about the crash may persist for two years or more, causing prolonged economic disruptions and spreading misery all around. So be prepared.
COVID-19 is an enigmatic disease. As the understanding of its pathogenesis evolves, more and more questions come to the fore.
1. Is there an explanation why the source of infection remains elusive in some cases?
It is possible that the coronavirus behaves like hepatitis B virus, which can remain dormant in its host, only to reactivate when the host’s immunity becomes compromised. In other words, the infection remains asymptomatic in some individuals, only to rear its ugly head when the host’s internal environment changes, prompting the virus to reactivate. Because reactivation may occur weeks or months after the initial infection, the original contact becomes impossible to trace. Without prior testing, there is no way to distinguish whether the current infection is a new infection or a reactivated old infection, unless other indications of previous infection such as the presence of antibody has been found. It is doubtful such tests are being done routinely. Even so, the possibility that the new case is in fact a reactivated old case cannot be ascertained, especially if the host is in fact immune tolerant to the virus. It has further been shown that reinfection with COVID-19 is also possible. How can a new infection be confirmed? Even if the strain of the virus in the “new infection” is different from the initial one, it may still be impossible to rule out that the original virus has mutated to its current form.
2. Why has there been a precipitous drop in the number of COVID-19 cases?
This is true at least in California, where the number of hospitalizations has plummeted from over 20,000 in the beginning of January to about 4,500 in the beginning of March. Such a dramatic reduction cannot be adequately explained by the vaccination effort that has taken place so far because only a small percentage of the population has been vaccinated. Neither can one ascribe the phenomenon to improved preventative measures resulting from a sudden change of behavior of Californians. Historically, most pandemics have ended in a couple of years, with or without intervention. Seasonality of influenza and other viral infections are well recognized. Could this be explained by the warming trend of weather in California that diminishes the virulence of the virus and strengthens the population’s immunity? Yet there may be another more plausible explanation. In West Nile disease, an overwhelming majority of the infected are asymptomatic, though the illness can be devastating in some. Might COVID-19 infections behave in a similar fashion? By examining the bloodwork of a general population of patients, there appears to be three times as many asymptomatic individuals who have had the virus than those who had tested positive. In fact, there may be other healthier individuals who had been exposed to the virus but were neither tested nor had their blood drawn because they had no reason to get tested. These healthy people have never been screened for exposure to COVID-19 by blood tests. We just do not know how many such people are out there who are highly resistant to the coronavirus. Currently, in California, roughly 10% of the population has tested positive. By extrapolating based on the above assumption, there are perhaps three to four times more asymptomatic cases than we know about because they have never been tested. In other words, theoretically, as much as half of the state’s population may have already contracted the virus and not known it, just like many hepatitis B carriers have no idea that they are infected. Consequently, the virus is spreading less effectively now because there are many fewer susceptible hosts to infect.
If such a scenario is indeed true, then the pandemic is less severe than previously thought because the number of infections—or more precisely, the number of people exposed to the virus—is much greater than the number of hospitalizations or deaths. Put another way, a much smaller fraction of those exposed to the virus actually became seriously ill. Therefore, the disease is much less deadly. The recently announced relaxation of preventative measures in Texas may turn out to be an unintended experiment to confirm or refute this hypothesis, which may be borne out if there is no dramatic surge in new cases in the weeks ahead due primarily to the waning of the pandemic as a result of herd immunity.
3. Are the mRNA vaccine doses set too high?
The two prevailing types of vaccines available now in this country manufactured by Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines. If you were the CEO of a pharmaceutical company participating in Operation Warp Speed, trying to develop a vaccine as quickly as possible with a great deal of corporate profit riding on the project, and you have to do it right the first time, would you not want to make sure it works by using a higher dose, despite the risk of more significant side effects? The extremely high efficacy rate of 94% or 95% is likely due to high potency dosing, which may be in reality a double-edged sword because the immune system is put into overdrive. That is why the second shot generally causes more severe side effects than the first one because the immune system has been overstimulated. This is consistent with the observation that a two half-dose regimen, or even a one-dose regimen, is still quite effective. The optimal time interval between the first and second injections is primarily based on guesswork because there is simply no time to fine-tune that estimate. Overdosing to guarantee a good response naturally entails more frequent and more severe side effects, and that could be a purely corporate business decision. More concerning, however, is the long-term sequelae caused by overdriving the immune system.
4. What is the potential of causing vaccine-associated disease enhancement by the genetic vaccines (DNA and mRNA) through the process known as antibody dependent enhancement?
A prime example of this phenomenon can be found in Dengue fever. The first time a person contracts the disease via mosquito bite, he or she will often only have mild symptoms. However, when that person contracts the disease again with a different strain (serotype) of the virus, he or she can develop very severe or fatal illness. This is because the body has already developed antibody to the virus, but the antibody is not entirely effective in stopping the attack by the virus of a different strain. This causes the immune system to overreact, leading to dire consequences. As another example, an experimental vaccine program on respiratory syncytial virus conducted in the Philippines had to be scuttled because of a number of deaths among children who participated in the project, due precisely to this “confounded” immune mechanism. The COVID-19 virus is constantly evolving and mutating into different variants that may eventually become a dominant strain. It is then at least theoretically possible that individuals vaccinated with these novel genetic vaccines could experience antibody-dependent enhancement when challenged with future variants of the virus, leading to much more severe diseases.
Although the origin of the first case of coronavirus (COVID-19) is heatedly debated, there is little doubt that an explosive number of cases occurred in the depth of winter in the city of Wuhan in China. Wuhan is the capital of Hubei, the province known for its many lakes — bodies of water. Hubei actually means Lake North. According to the scheme of the five elements, which is derived from the theories of I Ching, the northern direction represents the element of water. In this “water-rich” environment, its inhabitants, who tend to have wet or damp physical constitutions, are more prone to develop diseases of a damp nature.
Wu, as in wu su, or martial arts, means martial or military, han means either man (men) or the Han River. Therefore, Wuhan may be translated as a martial man or military man. Therefore, Wuhan may be translated as a martial man or military man. Coincidentally—or not so coincidentally according to I Ching—approximately four thousand military men from around the world had gathered in Wuhan for a festival of athletic games almost right at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak: the seafood market around Christmas 2019.
真武, the True Martial God, as legends go, commands the north, the direction representing the water element. As a matter of fact, a very well-known Chinese herbal medicine formula, the true martial decoction, or 真武湯, detailed in the Cold Injury Thesis, is commonly used to treat diseases caused by excessive water, or dampnesses, and coldness in the body. These pathological states are often found in individuals who are susceptible to contract the coronavirus.
There is this belief that the COVID-19 originated in bats, which are basically flying rats. Both bats and rats are nocturnal animals that embody the concept of the water element, which is extremely Yin in nature. So why should anyone be surprised that this happened in this year of the rat, which cycles every 12 years? More importantly, this particular year of the rat is dominated by 庚, or geng, the major metal element, and 子, or ze, the major water element, in accordance with the I Ching calendar. Based on the five elements theory, metal generates water, and big metal generates big water, making this perhaps the coldest year in a sixty-year cycle. Major water is equivalent to a large body of water in nature, such as the ocean. No wonder the ocean liners or cruise ships and the US Air Force carrier Roosevelt were the targets for attacks by the coronavirus.
The water element also symbolizes royalty, so it is no wonder that so many members of society’s upper crust have contracted the virus. Initially, there was news about an Italian senator and an Iranian general succumbing to COVID-19, followed by the infections of Tom Hanks and his wife, the Canadian first lady, and the British prime minister, among other prominent people. Some of the most noteworthy outbreaks took place on ships with names like Grand Princess and President Roosevelt. Even the diamond, as in Diamond Princess, embodies the essence of metal and water because of its properties of being hard (metal) and clear (water).
You may be inclined to discard what I have said as purely superstitious nonsense, or you may marvel at the ancient sages who discovered the cosmic law of the five elements as unusually astute observers of the forces of nature at work, much like Newton who discovered and formulated the Universal Low of Gravity by observing an apple falling from a tree.
Technical analysis is a methodology by which the volume and price movement of certain stocks over the course of time is plotted on a graph or chart to predict its future performance and facilitate trading for profit. For example, if the chart shows a certain pattern of stock investment activities, it is supposed to portend either upward or downward movement of stock prices, allowing the investor to make decisions to buy or sell. In my humble opinion, this is an exercise in self-delusion. Warren Buffett, one of the most successful people in the history of stock investment, often emphasizes that his investment strategy focuses on the long haul and that he has no way of predicting how the stock market will behave in the short run. The cause of stock price movement is often multifactorial—the soundness of the business, which may not always be apparent to the public; the ever-changing economic and political forces, both domestically and internationally; and the emotional and psychological state of the investors, regardless of their purse size. How can such complexities be boiled down into a two-dimensional chart? The mood swings of the stock market, reflecting those of the investors at large, are hardly predictable. There is no way a chartist or technical analysist can quantify such powerful forces. These technical analysts would have you believe that they hold the secret to successful investing. They even try to impress you by conjuring up fancy terms such as golden cross, death cross, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci ratio (named after a famous mathematician) to justify the existence of their trade. If charting is such a powerful tool, these analysts should all have become multimillionaires without having to share the secret with everyone. In reality, technical analysis is just a way of making a good living.
But should their analyses be entirely ignored? The answer is not necessarily. Why? If at a given moment enough people choose to believe in charts, they can become the instrument for self-fulfilling prophecy, and in some instances the stock prices will move in concert with their predictions. An investor can sometimes use them as one of many indicators, but never the sole indicator. As I wrote in my previous blog on May 27, 2020, Socrates defines a fool as someone who doesn’t have the necessary knowledge while being entirely oblivious to his lack of knowledge. It would be foolish to dance to the tune of technical analysis. When it comes to stock investment, I would much rather use my own “charts” based on calculations and deductions from the principles of I Ching. It would be rather involved to explain how such a system works at the moment; however, the details will be spelled out extensively in my upcoming book.
I have nothing against mathematics. In fact, I am a fan of mathematics because it is the purest form of science. Math does not lie, but data can. As the saying goes, “Garbage in, garbage out.” No matter how well-crafted a mathematical model is, it cannot accomplish its goal of accurate prediction when incomplete or erroneous data are fed into the formula. Medical statisticians have recently attempted to predict the number of cases and deaths of COVID-19, but this effort is doomed to fail because medical professionals are only scratching the surface in their understanding of COVID-19, especially in the following ways.
There may be many unknown cases in the general population. Few of these people have been tested for exposure to the virus because such individuals have never developed any kind of significant symptoms. At this point, it is anyone’s guess how large this pool of asymptomatic individuals is and whether they will continue to transmit the disease.
Patients who have recovered from COVID-19 can sometimes test positive for the virus again. Does this mean they are still capable of transmitting the virus? Can the virus stay in the host indefinitely, even after the host recovers from the acute phase of the illness? Will COVID-19 behave like other viruses, such as hepatitis B and C, which can remain inside the host long after the initial acute illness and sit dormant for years, only to reactivate becoming with fervor infectious again if and when the host becomes immunosuppressed? Although person-to-person transmission of hepatitis B and C is somewhat limited because they require exchange of body fluids and not just casual contact, there is no guarantee that COVID-19 will not be highly infectious again once activated.
The testing is imperfect and inaccurate. The population has not been fully tested for exposure to the virus, so we have no idea how widespread the exposure to this pathogen is. It may have been spreading quietly through the population because the syndrome was not fully recognized as being caused by this novel infectious agent.
Antibody tests have yet to be augmented in their accuracy to ensure the reliability of the result.
For these reasons, the raw data processed by any mathematical model are replete with pitfalls and errors. Consequently, any conclusion or predication drawn from this method will be off the mark by a long shot. If a model predicts too many cases, people will be frightened unnecessarily. If it predicts too few, it will foment a false sense of security. Reliance on such inaccurate predictions will have serious health, psychological , and economic consequences. We are better off without them. According to Socrates, the ancient Greek philosopher, he who thinks he knows and doesn’t know that he does not know is a fool. Let’s try not to be foolish.
