Don’t Follow Buffett Too Closely, or You might Get Buffeted

Dated: May 15, 2020

I want to state at the very outset that I have the greatest respect and admiration for Warren Buffett, both for his legendary investment acumen and his humanitarianism. That is why his actions thirteen days ago were so chocking. During the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting on May 2, 2020, he made the announcement that Berkshire had dumped all its shares in the airline industry, including American, Southwest, Delta, and United. Buffett’s uncharacteristic move caught me and many of the Berkshire shareholders by surprise because this seems to run against his famous strategy of buying something and then keeping it forever as a long-term investment. Yet almost in the same breath, he uttered his other famous saying that one should never bet against America. His action seems to imply that he has no confidence that the economy will bounce back anytime soon and that the airline industry will be depressed for an extended period. He appears to have been badly shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic, which he described as something he had never seen before in his thirty-nine years in investment. The price of Berkshire’s airlines’ stocks has already sustained very heavy losses within a relatively short holding period. So why was he in such a hurry to dump them? I, for one, think these stocks are good buys at these depressed prices. It is my belief that the pandemic scare will be over fairly soon, and the economy will be humming once again and the stock prices for the airlines will recover in a matter of months, not years. Could I be right and he be wrong? Furthermore, Berkshire is sitting on a mountain of cash, which Buffett said would not be deployed anytime soon because he is not buying. Apparently, he is harboring the notion that the American economy will remain depressed for a long time or that he has no inkling as to what paths the economy will take in the foreseeable future. If I had a lot of cash, I would be buying up all the depressed stocks in anticipation of a rather quick rebound—at least until the end of 2021—when I expect to unload the majority of my positions in anticipation of another period of severe recession or even depression, as I discussed in my previous blog on May 14, 2020.

Despite Warren Buffett’s long history of success in investments, some of his more recent acquisitions seem to not have panned out. The old adage that “past success is no guarantee for future results” is eminently applicable in this case, notwithstanding Buffett’s legendary success in stock picking. The cyclical nature of the cosmic energy precludes any individual’s good luck from lasting forever. Warren Buffett is almost ninety years old after all. His longtime partner Munger is ninety-six. Health, stamina, and intellectual prowess can dwindle with age. Coincidentally, aging factor aside, Buffett’s luck will also reach a critical turning point for the worst around the beginning of February 2022. Although I sincerely hope he will stay healthy and robust, I would not follow in his footsteps too closely. One of Buffett’s famous admonitions, “You don’t want to bet against America,” has been tried and true during the past several decades, for following every economic downturn full recovery has been the norm. Conversely, if you are the one managing your own investment portfolio just before Black Monday in 1929, and if you knew what was coming, what would you have done? The recent market crash in February and March this year took place with lightning speed, catching many a major hedge fund manager by surprise, like deer on the highway frozen in place by the bright headlights of oncoming traffic. I, for one, would try to have fun surfing the gigantic wave of prosperity in the stock market, only to bail by helicopter before the wave crashes, around February 2022.

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How Deadly is COVID-19?

Dated: April 28, 2020

How deadly is COVID-19? It depends on who you talk to—people who are totally asymptomatic after being infected with COVID-19 or the patients on respirators in the ICU. The truth is, at this point, we don’t really know because we don’t know the size of the infected population that is asymptomatic or with minimal symptoms.

It is generally believed that the mortality rate for COVID-19 pneumonia is around 2%, which is calculated by dividing the number of fatalities by the number of confirmed cases. This 2% rate is not quite reliable for several reasons. If the confirmed cases are artificially low due to inadequate testing, then the mortality rate will seem abnormally high. To illustrate my point, let’s take a look at the following hypothetical scenarios.

For instance, in a small American town with a population of 100,000, if half the population has been infected, among which five thousand or 10% are hospitalized, eventually one thousand or 20% of these hospitalized patients would succumb to the disease. Therefore, the overall death rate is one thousand in an infected population of fifty thousand, or 2%. In another scenario where the virus is less infectious, only ten thousand out of 100,000 people are infected, resulting in five thousand hospitalizations and one thousand fatalities. One thousand deaths out of ten thousand infected is equivalent to a 10% fatality rate, representing a much deadlier disease than that in the first scenario.

Although the number of hospitalizations and deaths are important metrics, they play no role in predicting the likelihood of future recurrence of the pandemic. A large number of individuals in a community who are either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic after being infected by the virus bodes well for the future because this cohort will develop antibodies and hence immunity to the virus, serving as a roadblock to COVID-19’s reentry into the community.

To understand the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic, universal testing in specific communities will be helpful. According to the news, Amazon plans to test all its employees for COVID-19. Should Amazon simultaneously test all employees for antibodies, it would provide clues about how widespread is the infections in a given population and the virulence of the virus itself. Smaller-scale testing could also be conducted on naval personnel aboard the carrier Roosevelt to gain further insight as to the extent of exposure to the virus by the entire crew.

Another potential yardstick for measuring the deadliness of the virus is by calculating the ratio of deaths to those hospitalized. However, this ratio may be skewed by geographic location, intensity of medical care, availability of medical equipment, and the types of patients admitted to the hospital. For instance, when therapeutic resources are strained, only the sickest patients will be admitted, as was the case in the early days of the pandemic in Wuhan and Italy. In such instances, the death rate tends to be high.

In conclusion, only extensive and comprehensive testing for both the presence of the virus and antibodies can give rise to a clearer picture of the infectivity of COVID-19. This would allow for rational and comprehensive planning that would forestall its reemergence.

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Curing COVID-19 Infection with Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)

Dated: April 21, 2020

by Tsun-Nin Lee, M.D.
Director
Academy of Pain Research
April 20, 2020

Introduction

The attached video report on the application of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) therapeutics in the treatment of COVID-19 infections in China has placed TCM in a positive light (https://vimeo.com/academyofpainresearch/review/407254717/299bddab9c) Unfortunately, it lacks specifics that would allow a modern physician to apply the information clinically. Furthermore, highly potent and lifesaving TCM therapeutics have taken a backseat in managing critically ill patients, according to the report. Another deficiency is the report’s failure to outline a clear-cut and overall credible strategy to combat this deadly disease with TCM. Though it mentions a number of treatment formulae in mild to moderate cases, it does not include a unified approach to dealing with the pathophysiology of COVID-19 illnesses, which is one of the important foci of the following article.

Discussion is raging on regarding the treatment for COVID-19 infections, generally focusing on two known solutions: antiviral medications and vaccines, both of which require a long time to develop. However, in the battle against COVID-19, time is of the essence. TCM-based therapies have been available for millennia against infectious diseases during past epidemics. Approximately 1,800 years ago in the Eastern Han Dynasty, Zhang Zhong Jing (張仲景) was the taishou (太守, equivalent to the position of mayor) of today’s Changsha in Hunan. Despite his prominent social status, he had to watch helplessly as almost one-third of his clansmen died in a rampaging epidemic. This family tragedy prompted him to learn everything he could about medicine, eventually making him the most respected physician in the long history of China. Zhong’s extensive clinical experience and highly systematic and analytical approach to various infectious diseases and chronic medical conditions culminated in the compilation of his clinical findings and therapeutic methodology in 傷寒論 (Cold Injury Thesis), from which many herbal formulae are still widely used today. Unfortunately, despite the plethora of knowledge accumulated by numerous prominent physicians throughout the ages in the treatment of clinical syndromes caused by infectious diseases, these highly effective tools have fallen by the wayside with the advent of antibiotics, to the distinct disadvantage of modern societies.

There is no reason that Chinese herbal medicine and modern therapeutics such as the use of antibiotics cannot be integrated for the greater good of patients, especially at this critical juncture when no effective antiviral medications have been proven effective. The substrate of Chinese medicine in the treatment of infections is not the invading organisms themselves, but rather the host’s response to those infections. In other words, its main action is to stimulate the body’s own immune system to fight off the infective agents. Exactly how is this priming of the immune system accomplished? What are the physiological mechanisms involved? Based on my theoretical work, TCM’s therapeutic modalities, which include acupuncture, moxibustion, and herbal medicine, are all acting directly on the central nervous system, which in turn modulates the immune system to focus its attack on the invading microorganisms such as bacteria and viruses. The mechanism of action may be explained in a somewhat simplistic manner as follows. The therapeutic formula is not meant to kill the infective agents directly, but rather to direct the host’s natural defenses to do so. Unlike in a real battle, it does not bring tanks, artillery, smart bombs, cruise missiles, or troops to the war theater. Rather, the formula functions more like a team of military advisors who know the enemy’s exact game plan. The team will anticipate the enemy’s next point of attack to direct the body’s armed forces to hold the line, thwarting its advance. Anticipating the enemy’s strategy allows the formula to direct the body’s immune system to mount effective counteroffensives. The TCM treatment, though not a vaccine, behaves like one. Vaccines enable the host to recognize the enemy early on and mobilize the body’s countermeasures against it. Without the vaccine or any kind of TCM intervention, the body is at a loss, not knowing how to react to the enemy’s onslaughts. It will take a considerable amount of time to learn about the enemy’s tactics before it can coordinate its efforts against it. On the other hand, both vaccines and TCM formulae are capable of coordinating the body’s defense intelligently, shortening the reaction time to put a stop to the enemy’s advance at an early stage. As Sunzi says in the Art of War, “知彼知己,百戰不殆,” or “Know thy enemy. Know thyself. Victorious always.” To gain further insight into the tremendous potential of TCM in the treatment of COVID-19 infections, let’s take a closer look at the first component of the motto, “Know thy enemy.”

COVID-19 is a Yin Virus

COVID-19 is yin in nature because it likes a cold and wet environment. To ensure its survival, it has the proclivity to induce and maintain a cold environment in the host to allow it to thrive and propagate its species. Individuals with a yin, or cold and wet, constitution are the ideal hosts for the virus. Individuals of advanced age, especially with comorbidities such as chronic kidney diseases, diabetes, and cardiovascular conditions often suffer from yang deficiency states and are particularly prone to contracting COVID-19 pneumonia because their bodies’ conditions are ideally suited for the virus to thrive in. As the virus expands its territory, the host’s condition continues to deteriorate; cold begets cold and wet begets wet, eventually causing the host’s demise. The yin nature of COVID-19 is also evident by its prolonged survival on cold objects such as metallic surfaces and its destruction when the environmental temperature exceeds 57ºC, as well as the explosive number of cases in Wuhan in the depths of winter.

Due to its yin nature, the COVID-19 virus is rather sneaky; it can be waiting in the wings for quite some time before it rears its ugly head, sometimes after a prolonged incubation period. In some cases, the test for COVID-19 may turn positive again in patients who have recovered from the acute phase, once again affirming its covert or yin nature. My guess is that it may even have the potential to linger in the body indefinitely, just like the hepatitis B or hepatitis C viruses, though this hypothesis has not yet been proven. It can be quiet and indolent for a long time, as in the case of tuberculosis, which can lay dormant for a very long time, only to reactivate and attack when the host becomes weak or immunosuppressed. Hence mycobacteria tuberculosis also behave as yin organisms.

The COVID-19 Virus Produces and/or Aggravates the Wetness or Dampness Syndrome

It has been observed on the frontlines by many critical care clinicians that COVID-19 victims often behave as if they were suffering from high altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE) rather than acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). High altitude sickness is a yang deficiency state because oxygenation is an energy-producing process—a yang process, so to speak—making a lack of oxygen equivalent to a lack of yang. This yang-deficient (yin-dominant) state is characterized by excessive water (a yin element) that gravitates toward the lungs (a yin organ), causing the patient to drown in his own fluids, leading to pulmonary edema. There is little wonder that coca, a local remedy for high altitude sickness in the Andes in Peru, is a yang-promoting substance, whereas Diamox, a modern medication used as a diuretic, is employed for the same purpose: getting rid of the water (yin) to preserve the yang. The following is a brief summary of the work done by Professor Liu Liang (劉良), Department of Forensic Medicine, Tung Ji (同濟) Medical University, who performed autopsies on patients who died from COVID-19 infections in China. According to a published report in the Journal of Forensic Medicine in China entitled “General Observations from the Post-Mortem Examination of COVID-19 Patients,” the lungs of those who died from COVID-19 pneumonia are filled with grayish white exudate on the dissected surface of the lungs, and the bronchioles are filled with tenacious fluid that plugs up the alveoli where gas exchange normally takes place, thereby preventing oxygen from being transported. The report further observes that the use of mechanical ventilation forcing oxygen into the lungs may have resulted in pushing the fluid into the lung tissues to obstruct the small airways and alveoli. This observation seems to be in agreement with the opinion of many frontline clinicians in the West that regular protocols for mechanical ventilation may not be appropriate—and may have actually resulted in a high mortality rate of patients on respirators. According to the teachings of TCM, COVID-19 pneumonia is characterized by shortness of breath due primarily to the excessive production of phlegm, which should be removed by phlegm-dispersing herbal formulae.

A Brief Primer on Cold Injury Thesis and the Five Elements Theory

To have a sensible discussion about TCM’s approach to illnesses caused by COVID-19, it is necessary to have a basic understanding about the Cold Injury Thesis, which considers the body to be composed of six different divisions, physiologically functioning like layers from outside to inside, each containing various quantities and qualities of yin and yang. Beginning from the body’s exterior, the divisions are named as follows:

  1. Tai Yang (Greater Yang) 太陽
  2. Shao Yang (Lesser Yang) 少陽
  3. Yang Ming (Radiant Yang) 陽明
  4. Tai Yin (Greater Yin) 太陰
  5. Shao Yin (Lesser Yin) 少陰
  6. Jue Yin (Extreme Yin) 厥陰

These dividing layers may also be viewed as lines of defense. As the pathological force advances in many infectious processes, the lines of defense may fall one by one, leading to the eventual demise of the host. An assault on any division will manifest specific symptom complexes. Equally specific remedies can then be administered to win back the lost territories. Infective agents may target one layer at a time, or more than one layer simultaneously, sometimes posing diagnostic challenges. These six divisions, in modern medical terms, are likely to represent the body’s systematic and specialized neuroimmunoendocrinal responses to infections.

Another important fundamental principle of TCM is the five elements theory, which essentially defines the pathophysiological functions of each organ system by assigning an element to it to illustrate the regulation of interactions among these organ systems according to the concept of the generation cycle—water generates wood, which generates fire, which generates earth, which generates metal, which generates water—versus the suppression cycle — water suppresses fire, which suppresses metal, which suppresses wood, which suppresses earth, which suppresses water. For instance, liver excess (wood) may cause extreme anger, generating over-activities in the heart (fire), leading to rapid heartbeats and high blood pressure that are often found in Grave’s disease (hyperthyroidism). Too much wood (liver excess) can also suppress earth (stomach), as anger can also lead to a gut-wrenching experience, literally. The five elements are merely symbols embodying the rules governing the processes of excitation and inhibition among the body’s different physiological and organ systems.

The Target Organ System of the COVID-19 Virus

Professor Didier Raoult, the French physician who performed the initial clinical study using a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat COVID-19 pneumonia, reported significant improvement in patients on this regimen, although the rationale behind its efficacy has not been adequately elucidated. Hydroxychloroquine, a medication originally used for the treatment of malaria, is also used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, and other autoimmune conditions. It is interesting to note that both rheumatoid arthritis and lupus are cold and wet conditions according to TCM analysis, primarily affecting patients with excessive elements of water and wood in their constitution, where water represents the kidney system and wood the liver/gallbladder system. Malaria or malaria-like illnesses are typical of disease states of the shao yang (lesser yang) system, which also belongs to the wood element, which in turn represents the liver/gallbladder system. A prominent feature of malaria is alternating hot and cold, or fever and chills. According to an old adage of TCM, “無痰不成瘧,” that is “If there is no phlegm, there can be no malaria-like disease.” Based on TCM analysis, hydroxychloroquine may very well have a regulating effect and phlegm-dispersing characteristics for the shao yang (liver/gallbladder) system, and that may explain why it is efficacious in the treatment of a variety of medical conditions, such as rheumatoid arthritis and lupus, that also feature excessive phlegm in the liver/gallbladder system. A typical shao yang disease usually presents with one or more of the following symptoms: dry throat, bitter taste in the mouth, pain in the thorax, cough, shortness of breath, or alternating fevers and chills. When qi, or energy, is excessive in the water (kidney) and wood (liver) elements systems, the gastrointestinal functions represented by the earth element will be suppressed, because wood suppresses earth. Diarrhea is also present in some cases, and about 20% of COVID-19 patients may experience a transient loss of taste, a clinical sign that the gastrointestinal functions (the earth element) have been impaired. Therefore, hydroxychloroquine need not have the ability to kill the virus as long as it has the capacity to regulate the liver/gallbladder system, thus making the internal environment inhospitable to the viral invaders. This inhospitable environment will frustrate the virus’s attempt to grow and multiply. And to be therapeutic, these medications do not even have to possess any invitro activities against the virus. As a matter of fact, early treatment with TCM herbal formulae can frequently prevent mild cases from progressing to more severe cases, using the lung-clearing toxin eliminating decoction that combines the following four formulae derived from the Cold Injury Thesis:

  1. 麻杏石甘湯: Ma huang almond ginseng licorice decoction, to expel heat from the lungs
  2. 小柴胡湯: Bupleurum minor decoction, to regulate the shao yang system
  3. 五苓散: Five ling powder, consisting of five separate ingredients, to rid the body of excessive phlegm
  4. 射干麻黃湯: She gan ma huang decoction, to suppress heat in the lungs

My criticism about these formulae is that they are not sufficiently tonifying and not warming enough because the majority of COVID-19 patients are qi-deficient and cold. While hydroxychloroquine appears to be effective on its own, the French study suggests that combining it with azithromycin may be even more effective. Examining the effects of azithromycin from the standpoint of TCM, one can understand why it may work in this situation, whether or not it possesses any antiviral properties. Azithromycin, or macrolides as a class, may be used to promote gastrointestinal motility; hence it may be regarded as a tonifying agent for the gastrointestinal system (the earth element), enhancing its abilities to stand up against the liver/gallbladder system (wood). Consequently, the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin will create an internal environment much less favorable to the virus, preventing it from overwhelming the host’s defenses. This simple theoretical framework adequately explains why the combination may be effective. More importantly, this therapeutic concept may be extrapolated to include a whole host of treatment avenues comprising the TCM armamentarium. In other words, in this particular clinical setting, these modern drugs are being used like herbs in TCM and not as antiprotozoals (hydroxychloroquine) and antibiotics (azithromycin) in modern medicine.

Expanding the Armamentarium with TCM Approaches

Now that we have a fair understanding of the enemy, including its tactics, we should take inventory of our weaponry to better adhere to the second part of Sunzi’s motto “Know thy enemy, know thyself” and win the war. Accordingly, our strategy is as follows:

I. Herbal formula to warm up the body
II. Herbal formula to rid the body of excessive fluid or phlegm
III. Tonifying formula to strengthen the qi
IV. Herbal formula to control, regulate, or suppress the excess in the liver/gallbladder
system (wood)
V. Tonifying formula for the gastrointestinal system (earth)

The formulae above may be combined or administered separately. The following TCM herbal formulae are generally safe and effective, if properly prescribed and administered:

I. True martial decoction (真武湯) for its warming effect
II. Rehmannia eight (金匱腎氣湯) for tonification or both yin and yang
III. Bupleurum minor (小柴胡汤) or chai hu, gan jiang, gui zhi decoction
(柴胡桂枝干姜湯) to regulate the liver/gallbladder system
IV. Six gentlemen decoction (六君子湯) to tonify the GI functions and to disperse phlegm

There are, of course, additional potent formulae for the critically ill, including ma huang fu zi xi xing decoction (麻黃附子細辛湯) and green dragon minor decoction (小青龍湯) for wet lungs. The greatest utility of these formulae from the Cold Injury Thesis may be applicable for certain critical conditions of COVID-19 pneumonia. Unfortunately, these have not been adequately deployed to combat the recent COVID-19 pandemic, essentially squandering the precious knowledge painstakingly assembled by Zhang Zhong Jing, who was canonized as the Saint of Chinese medicine.

Additional Observations

Quite a number of frontline clinicians utilizing mechanical ventilation to treat COVID-19 pneumonia have experienced disappointing results, marked by a high mortality rate. The following factors should be considered.

First, high pressure ventilation may cause injury by pushing the mucus deep into the lung tissue or drying up the mucous, making it more tenacious and further preventing gas exchange. Second, the respiratory drive is usually controlled by the rhythmic neural circuit within the brainstem, characterized by its own unique rhythm. If the respirator’s breathing cycles are not synchronized with this internal rhythm, usually in the pressure control or volume control settings, they may impede the internal qi, causing disruption to the body’s natural rhythm and resulting in more harm than good. Third, heavy sedation is often prescribed to reduce the anxiety of intubated patients. Unfortunately, all sedatives are cold in nature, suppressing neural activities in the brain and thereby disabling the central command that plays a crucial role in coordinating various bodily functions to achieve a better internal environment, which is essential in winning the battle against the marauding viral invaders.

Other treatment modalities that can stimulate the body’s immune system to defend against COVID-19 should also be employed. AuricuLeetherapy, a unique proprietary therapy in which points on the ear are injected with minute amounts of medications, may also be called into action. There will be more on that subject in future communications.

Designing a Therapeutic Protocol for Clinical Trial Using Traditional Chinese Medical Agents

Based on the discussion so far, the main therapeutic strategy is to tonify the gastrointestinal system and regulate the liver/gallbladder system to harmonize the internal environment, making it less favorable to the survival of the virus. There is a reasonable probability that the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin may accomplish this goal. However, concerns may be raised about the side effects of these medications. From my own analysis, excessive wood and water are a common finding in the constitutions of patients suffering from rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, or type 2 diabetes. Surprisingly, in a recent clinical trial conducted in India, hydroxychloroquine used for the treatment of type 2 diabetes was found to be more effective for glycemic control and weight loss than the recently developed type 2 diabetes drugs DPP4 inhibitor and SGLT2 inhibitor. Based on the very same theoretical model, it may be possible to substitute artemisinin for hydroxychloroquine. Artemisinin is a derivative of the Chinese herb qinghao, which was used to treat malaria as early as two thousand years ago. Tu Youyou shared the 2015 Nobel Prize for her discovery, isolation, and application of the chemical compound qinghaosue (qinghao extract) in the treatment of malaria. On the whole, it is more effective than the other antimalarial drugs and is now the first-line treatment for falciparum malaria. This drug has a favorable side effect profile, yet it is more potent than hydroxychloroquine. Additionally, it will only be used for the short term in the treatment of COVID-19 pneumonia, mitigating some of the worry about its long-term effects. Azithromycin, on the other hand, is being used as a tonifier for the gastrointestinal system and thus may be substituted for with the six gentlemen decoction, or girotate, both of which possess warming, tonifying, and phlegm-dispersing functions, at the same time reducing GI upset, a common side effect of artemisinin. By simply adjusting the dosages of these formulae, they may be used to treat COVID-19 infections of varying degrees of severity. After all, the currently available treatments for gravely ill patients are only supportive in nature, with both patients and doctors forced to wait for the patients’ own immune response to kick in. Unfortunately, the efficacy of that immune response is not a given. On the other hand, if the above theoretical model is correct, significant clinical improvement should be discernible within a few days. The potential for harm with these generally safe therapeutic agents is unlikely, while the potential benefits may include reduced severity of illness, shortened hospital stays, and, most importantly, life-saving results for many.

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A preliminary analysis of the viral epidemic in Wuhan from the perspectives of traditional Chinese medicine and I-Ching

A preliminary analysis of the viral epidemic in Wuhan from the perspectives of traditional Chinese medicine and I-Ching

Gene sequencing has shown that the Wuhan coronavirus is rather similar to the SARS virus, but whether the pathogenesis, evolution of symptoms, and virulence of this pathogen are, in fact, parallel to those observed in the SARS epidemic is, in my humble opinion, open to debate. From the viewpoints of traditional Chinese medicine and the theories of I-Ching, these two viral epidemics may be distinctly different because SARS is a Yang condition, and the Wuhan viral syndrome is Yin in nature.

First, the Wuhan epidemic emerged in the deep of winter; therefore, it is Yin in nature. SARS exploded in the spring and summer; thus, it has Yang characteristics.

Second, the Wuhan coronavirus wreaks havoc on the elderly and the chronically ill who suffer from Yang deficiency (excess Yin). In contrast, many of those who perished in the SARS epidemic were individuals in their prime with a Yang constitution (excess Yang).

Third, the Wuhan epidemic rears its ugly head in the year of Hai (亥), which represents the element of water, and is, therefore, Yin in nature, whereas the SARS outbreak began in earnest in the year of Wei (未), which stands for dry earth with fire and is, hence, Yang in nature.

The Wuhan coronavirus prefers to live in a Yin environment; it abhors high temperatures and alcohol because both are Yang. SARS cases were treated in Hong Kong with modern medicine, including the use of steroids that are warm and Yang in nature. In Guangzhou, on the contrary, the disease was treated with a combination of modern medicine and traditional Chinese medicine. The mortality rate of the cases in Guangzhou was significantly lower than that in Hong Kong, likely because of the difference in therapeutic approaches. Steroids were incorporated in the Hong Kong treatment protocol. According to traditional Chinese medical principles, treating a Yang condition like SARS with Yang medicine like steroids can do more harm than good—it is like pouring fuel onto the fire!

Modern medical therapy relies primarily on supportive measures to combat the Wuhan coronavirus. Because of the lack of specific antiviral agents, steroids, which are warm in nature, may be employed as a stopgap option. Therapeutics based on traditional Chinese medicine may significantly, and sometimes dramatically, improve clinical outcomes because Chinese medicine can boost the patient’s own immune response to resist and destroy the pathogens.

The Cold Injury Thesis (傷寒論), written by Zhang Zhong Jing (張仲景), the historically lionized Chinese physician of the Han dynasty, is the canon for diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. It contains a number of highly effective herbal formulae. Mahuang Fuzi Xixin Tang (麻黃附子細辛湯) is one such formula that may be called upon to treat gravely ill patients suffering from Yang deficiency states caused by the Wuhan coronavirus. However, it is of paramount importance that such a formula be prescribed only by experienced Chinese medicine practitioners after careful examinations and diagnoses to ensure patients’ safety.

Tsun-Nin Lee, MD, in San Francisco

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Does Bernanke still have a chance?

Dated: October 8, 2013

By all measures and with few exceptions, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has done a great job by preventing the economy from going down the drain. Yet, President Obama was intent on replacing him, for political reasons unbeknownst to the public. During a recent press conference, a reporter asked Mr. Bernanke if it was his own personal desire not to stay on as the Fed chairman, or whether that was the president’s idea. Bernanke’s response: he did not wish to discuss his personal plan. Apparently, he wants to keep his job, yet he could not say in so many words, for obvious political reasons, that the president wanted to replace him.

For reasons not fully disclosed to the public, Obama was eager to nominate Summers, whose candidacy was derailed by political forces within his own party. Now that his chosen candidate is gone, Obama’s motivation to get rid of Bernanke may no longer exist. Most observers had previously predicted that he would make the announcement nominating the next Fed chairman in September, but that didn’t happen. Most people thought the contest was between Summers and Yellen. Now that Summers is out of the running, why has Yellen not yet been nominated? Is it because Obama, now left with a choice between Bernanke and Yellen, might consider nominating Bernanke for another term? This would allow Bernanke to complete his plan for economic recovery, with which he has done a marvelous job so far.

Based on my I Ching analysis (defined in previous blogs), Bernanke’s star will rise again in 2014 and will be sustained for decades to come, whether or not he is nominated for another term, whereas Yellen’s luck will begin to slide in the beginning of 2014. For the benefit of the nation, I hope that President Obama will decide to do the right thing.

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The American Encierro: Running Ahead of the Bulls

Dated: October 8, 2013

Facing the uncertainty of raising the debt ceiling, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently retreated to about 15,000, as investors debate whether this is the time to take money off the table or to take advantage of the buying opportunities. Personally, I believe that a bull run is just around the corner, starting as early as December, or at the latest, January of next year. My reasoning is as follows:

1. The politicians in Washington recognize the dire consequences of not raising the national debt ceiling, and few are inclined to endure the wrath of voters if the national debt is allowed to default. Somehow, they will find a way to avert the crisis in the eleventh hour, despite their endless bickering and posturing to show their constituents that they are doing their darndest to protect their ideology. Whatever effects this uncertainty may have on the market will quickly dissipate, and when that happens, the market is going to gain further momentum to the upside.

2. The worry about China’s economy a few months ago seems rather unfounded now. Housing in America, a vitally important segment of the economy, is on the fast track to recovery. It is recovering despite the hiccups caused by a sudden surge of interest rates when the Federal Reserve spooked the market this last May by suggesting that an early tapering of the bond-buying program was imminent. When most Wall Street pundits expected tapering from the Fed last month, it did not happen, resulting in a drop of interest rates. In all likelihood, housing should continue to do well, albeit at a less feverish pace. Economic conditions in Europe are on the mend and should accelerate in 2014. When the world’s three largest economies—the United States, China, and Europe—all perform well in synchrony, the market should have no way to go but up.

My predictions: the Dow Jones index can easily reach 16,500 before 2014 is over, more likely before July, and it could go as high as 17,000. When the market moves, it can move fast. So be prepared to catch the train before it leaves the station. It is time to seriously consider investing in equity, before the end of 2013.

The Encierro is a well-known Spanish festival where thrill-seekers run in front of raging bulls in the streets of Pamplona. This is an exciting but dangerous sport with little financial gain. The American Encierro, i.e., the running of the bulls in Wall Street, is quite another matter, especially if one runs far ahead of the bulls, long before the market begins to rally in earnest. This game is going to be safe but just as exciting as the Encierro, and highly profitable. The ideal time to play it is before everyone realizes that the bull run is taking place.

When the market begins to shoot up again, the financial, industrial, technology, and material sectors will benefit the most.

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The Publication of My Book

Dated: September 6, 2013

For the last four decades, I have been practicing a special brand of medicine that integrates East and West by combining the best of modern medicine and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) on the basis of diagnosis and treatment.

Although I received an excellent medical education from the NYU School of Medicine, I had my reservations about the efficacy of modern medical therapy in a variety of chronic degenerative diseases. By the end of my first year in medical school, I became keenly interested in the roles played by the brain in causing and curing illnesses. Subsequently, I was particularly drawn to acupuncture, the effects of which are mediated by the nervous system. I also came to a similar conclusion regarding herbal treatments based on TCM. Apparently, the vital roles played by the central nervous system in healing were largely ignored in the Western medicine paradigm.

Fortunately, throughout the years I have been able to help a significant number of patients whose conditions did not respond well to modern medical approaches. My burning desire to share the lessons I learned from this novel yet highly effective approach to healing prompted me to begin teaching the techniques to fellow physicians in formal continuing education programs.

Physicians and surgeons who took my courses came from a variety of disciplines and various parts of the country. At the repeated urging of the graduates of these programs (some of which are 300 hours long), I finally decided to convert some of the teaching materials in my lectures into book form so the information would be available to as many readers as possible, regardless of whether they are in the medical profession.

I have made a conscious effort to render the book’s contents comprehensible to non-physicians by using simple terms and analogies to illustrate the important but sometimes poorly understood concepts in TCM as well as in modern medicine. This book, Integrating Modern Medicine and Traditional Chinese Medicine, a Lecture Series by Tsun-Nin Lee M.D., Volume 1Acupuncture, is now available at amazon.com in both paperback and e-book form. This book utilizes acupuncture as a focal point from which I delve into the many interesting aspects of the human body, pathophysiology, and the mechanisms of healing; it also demystifies the seemingly abstruse principles in Chinese medicine. For more details about the book, please click on this link — http://www.amazon.com/dp/1492115916. After you have the chance to read the book, I hope you will spare a few moments to share your thoughts and valuable comments with me and other readers by posting them at amazon.com.

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Replacing Bernanke: Fixing Something That Ain’t Broke, or Breaking Something That’s Already Fixed?

Dated: September 6, 2013

Remember the days of the financial tsunami in late 2008 and early 2009 when the stock market had tanked and investors were in a panic? Remember the clamor of financial pundits who raised the specter of a double-dip recession soon after the market partially recovered? Now that the economy has largely recovered, does anyone remember the very person who almost single-handedly engineered the economy’s rehabilitation? You generally only want to replace executives if they are doing an inadequate job. Does this rule apply to Bernanke? That is why I cannot figure out why President Obama wishes to remove him as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Mr. Bernanke has been a steady helmsman who has guided the nation away from stormy waters via several rounds of quantitative easing. But his job is only half complete; he has yet to taper the quantitative easing to nurture the economy back to normalcy. If people believe he has done a great job so far, he should be allowed to stay at the helm and complete the task.

I personally believe that Bernanke ought to let the public know that he intends to stay on as the Fed chairman, if only to preserve his legacy for generations to come. Frankly, I am surprised that the beneficiaries of his policies have not uttered a word in favor of keeping him on the job. Instead, Wall Street pundits are wasting time and energy speculating about who is going to be the next Fed chairman.

Between Yellen and Summers, I strongly prefer Yellen. Unfortunately, Summers’s life energy is on an ascending path while Yellen’s has bees descending since the beginning of 2014. If Summers is chosen, Yellen will likely be squeezed out of the Federal Reserve Board. Interestingly, Bernanke’s star will be dimming in the next few months but will be shining bright again at the beginning of 2014. Bernanke’s star will remain radiant for years to come because history will look upon his work favorably. I hope he will be able to keep his job somehow because I would feel much more confident investing in the stock market with him around.

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What do Dell and Herbalife have in common?

Dated: July 22, 2013

Financier Carl Icahn is currently deeply involved with both companies. He wants to keep Dell at least partially public by making every effort to thwart Michael Dell’s attempt to take the company private. The matter will be decided in a few days after the shareholders cast their votes. It should be pointed out that the voting was originally scheduled to occur this weekend, but was delayed by Michael Dell.

On the other front, Icahn, currently controlling a substantial position in Herbalife, boasts that he had made half a billion dollars owning the stocks, thanks to his adversary William Ackman, the hedge fund manager of Pershing Square who has been shorting Herbalife’s stocks, believing it has been engaging in unsavory business practices, which is currently under investigation by the government.

So who is going to win?

As mentioned in my last blog, this year’s energy field is characterized by the constant battling of water and fire, with the first half of the year dominated by fire and the second half by water. The energy field is about to undergo an inflection point in a matter of days. Icahn has been basking in positive life force since the beginning of the year but that is about to change. In the opposing camps, namely Dell and Ackman, the opposite is true, as their life forces are gathering strength moving forward from this moment on. Based on this assessment, the delay in voting by Dell’s shareholders appears to benefit Michael Dell, to the detriment of Carl Ichan. Likewise, if the government discovers any wrongdoing by Herbalife, its stock price is going to tank and the profits of his investment is going to evaporate in a hurry and Ackman will get the last laugh. Besides, Mr. Icahn did not look too good in his recent TV appearance____his aura waning.

In the big picture, it may also mean the fast rising stock prices may soon come to a screeching halt and maybe put into reverse in the very near future, fortunately this reversal will not last long, as the bull market will resume in the beginning of 2014.

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Will highflying Boeing stocks have a hard landing?

Dated: July 19, 2013

The stock price of Boeing has recently enjoyed a meteoric rise from the low $70’s  to approximately $107. The crash of the Asiana airliner at SF0 earlier this month did not seem to faze the investors, although the fire that broke out in an Ethiopian airliner parked at London’s Heathrow Airport a few days ago did briefly push the stock price down to below $100, which quickly recovered. Nonetheless, based on my I Ching analysis, there is good reason to be worried about the performance of the stock in the next few months. The following are the predictions based on this analysis.

This is the year of the snake in which the elements water and fire keep on battling each other, with fire prevailing in the first half of the year and water dominating in the second half. At the moment the dividing line is just about to be crossed. Generally speaking, the flight of a plane assumes the characteristics of fire, which rises up in the air. As a Corporation, Boeing thrives on the element of fire but gets balked down by the element of water. On that fateful day of July 7 (a strong water element day), a Boeing 777 (the number seven belongs to the element of fire), one of Boeing’s prototype of planes which have experienced no accidents for 18 years straight, crashed landed at SFO. Not surprisingly, the name of the airline involved in the disaster is Oceana (a gigantic body of water)! This occurrence signifies that the water element’s influence has already emerged and will gain momentum in the months to come. Consequently, the second half of 2013 appears to be a period of adversity for Boeing, or at least a period lacking of prosperity. In my estimation, Boeing’s stock price will retreat to below $90 in short order. However, since the company’s fundamentals are excellent, the stock price of Boeing will resume its rise in the beginning of 2014 and should reach new highs in the first half of that year.

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